At the moment we're looking at a roughly 80/3 spread. For every EXTRA 80 new people born (extra as they only contribute to population growth not replacement), roughly 3 might die from coronavirus. So this 80/3 spread is an imaginary number (i) based on the amount born that's greater than (>) the population replacement rate where the current population sits at almost 8 BILLION.
Population in the world is currently (2020) growing at a rate of around 1.05% per year (down from 1.08% in 2019, 1.10% in 2018, and 1.12% in 2017). The current average population increase is estimated at 81 million people per year. Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at around 2%.
This is somewhat unscientific however basically correct. Scientifically speaking, coronavirus cases can wreak havoc on hospital systems already in place so that other deaths and spill over effects can occur from too many doctors and nurses dying or getting sick from the virus and hospital utilities being depleted effecting other operations and procedures. That's a complicated topic, scientifically speaking.
Mathematically, these numbers are pretty sound. If the world records two million coronavirus deaths and the experts state 20% underreporting (that's another 400,000 on two million reported). Factor in china's underreporting of hundreds of thousands of deaths, likely over a million and we see 3 million deaths are very conservative as actual deaths may be almost 4 million. Considering many deaths are reported as something else. Thousands of people will survive with permanent brain damage due to blood clots in the brain caused by the virus and the like so it's as if there will be more ex american football players out there, kind of concussed.
Also the virus is following a kind of Moore's law in that it doubles the death rate as time goes by. So if after a year we have four million dead, perhaps after two years we'll have eight million dead. And three years, 16 million, and four years, 32, and five years 64 million. This is just a scenario and nothing to say it might happen. However, even if after five to ten years, the virus were able to kill eighty million people a year, all that would mean is a levelling off of the world's population at a seemingly excessive 8 BILLION people. 8 BILLION people that according to many scientific accounts, more or less divorced from politically inspired narratives, are too many, when it comes to resource depletion and the whole carbon mumbo jumbo.
Say at present 100 million have the virus as scientists say, and the death rate is around 3.5% roughly, so we have a paltry 3.5 million dead. And say the entire 8 BILLION people in the world get the virus. Multiplying by 80, we'd have maybe 280 million dead. Not an impossible number if you consider the pandemic from 100 years ago lead to 20 million dead. Not exactly the end of the world is it? Even with 260 million dead people, it would only take around four years to replace them.
No big deal.
Most interesting to consider are (some of) the societal FORCES that may contribute to war or a lack thereof or spread/non spread of the virus: one, comfort.
Comfort is a major issue, while many people may be comfortable with the virus this may lead to an actual reduction in the spread of the virus and a new world order in terms of people working from home and not driving to and from work and a cessation of virtually meaningless socializing, often accompanied by meaningless or detrimental drunken behavior. Comfort in war, why go to war to combat evil when it leads to discomfort. Look what happened in Iraq, people's legs getting blown off, no apparent positive result apart from Europe becoming Islamified. Comfortable democracies tend to be happy with viruses and Facebook. Noone wants to get their legs blown off.
Implosion factor of china. Comfort is virtually not an issue in gaging china's behavior as china has very little comfort and was never needy for it really, this is often just a dietary/lifestyle matter historically. China is driven by desire for resources as a number one. Loss of comfort in war is no consideration and in fact war may lead to more comfort for china. Discomfort can only be an issue for the chinese in terms of starvation, which, with flooding and embargoes can actually be a real issue for China. Boldness and strong optimistic outlook from China can only be checked by a holistic and vigorous response which may not necessarily lead to a typical conventional war. Example of this is america's coast guard becoming active in confronting china's fishing militia even in south american waters. Very difficult for China to win a conventional war against america, France, the UK, australia and potentially vietnam and Japan if it comes to that and extremely unlikely china's leadership wants to relinquish their tenured long term lifestyles for this kind of serious committed war. Especially when you consider the low morale and corruption (incompetence) of china's military which Hindus frequently refer to as a paper tiger. The possibility of china concocting this virus also with a view to killing off their ageing population is extremely real and a very serious motivation for their government as their aged population is otherwise really unsustainable in twenty years time or so according to projections.
China's demographic problem:
https://youtu.be/XIFWG8ea6HI
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